Market sees low odds of Hormuz reopening

The likelihood of normal maritime traffic resuming in the Strait of Hormuz before the end of May has dropped to just 40%, according to data from prediction market Polymarket. This low probability signals a market expectation that the critical waterway will remain closed for at least another five weeks. Such a prolonged closure would likely trigger severe fuel shortages in many countries dependent on the strait for oil shipments. The post suggests a military opening of the strait remains a potential option if Iran continues to refuse diplomatic solutions.