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Brazil4d ago

Lula widens lead over Bolsonaro in Brazil runoff poll

CNT/MDA poll shows President Lula extending advantage over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in potential October runoff.

Sources
1 verified
Location
Brazil
Updated
Tuesday, 16 June 2026 at 15:20 UTC
No media · text-only dispatch
Synthesis · 1 sources
A new CNT/MDA poll shows Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva widening his lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round runoff for the October general elections. The survey, released on Tuesday, indicates Lula's advantage has grown as the campaign intensifies. The poll comes amid heightened political polarization in Brazil, with both candidates vying for undecided voters ahead of the first round.
Prediction markets · Polymarket
Polymarket↗
Brazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
52%
Y
Flávio Bolsonaro
25%
N
Renan Santos
14%
N
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
N
Fernando Haddad
2%
N
Camilo Santana
2%
N
Romeu Zema
1%
N
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
N
+9 more outcomes on Polymarket
Polymarket↗
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
87%
Y
Flavio Bolsonaro
69%
Y
Renan Santos
32%
N
Romeu Zema
27%
N
Ronaldo Caiado
27%
N
Fernando Haddad
6%
N
Michelle Bolsonaro
4%
N
Tarcisio de Frietas
3%
N
+1 more outcomes on Polymarket
Polymarket↗
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10%
37%
N
Lula da Silva <5%
35%
N
Lula da Silva 10-15%
10%
N
Lula da Silva 15%+
5%
N
Renan Santos Victory
5%
N
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
4%
N
Other
4%
N
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
1%
N
+3 more outcomes on Polymarket
Polymarket↗
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio Bolsonaro
69%
Y
Renan Santos
15%
N
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
5%
N
Romeu Zema
3%
N
Camilo Santana
3%
N
Fernando Haddad
2%
N
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
N
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
N
+9 more outcomes on Polymarket
Polymarket↗
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Renan Santos
54%
Y
Ronaldo Caiado
13%
N
Romeu Zema
12%
N
Flávio Bolsonaro
10%
N
Fernando Haddad
2%
N
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
2%
N
Camilo Santana
1%
N
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
N
+9 more outcomes on Polymarket
e/eineurope · topic · T-82297