Analysis: Russia's 2026 offensive stalled

An analysis of the battlefield suggests Russia's Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, launched no later than March 17, has stalled without making tactically significant gains. This assessment directly contradicts recent claims by Russia's Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, who stated Russian forces had seized 1,700 square kilometers of territory this year. The analysis frames Gerasimov's statements as an attempt to obscure the disappointing lack of progress in the campaign. While Russian forces have reported localized advances in areas like Rai-Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole, the overall strategic momentum of the offensive appears to have faltered.