Market odds on Iran uranium surrender plunge

The probability of Iran surrendering its uranium stockpile by April 30 has plummeted on the prediction market Polymarket. Four days ago, the market priced the chance at 65%, but that figure has now crashed to just 16%. This sharp decline reflects growing market pessimism about a diplomatic breakthrough in the stalled US-Iran talks. The drop coincides with reports that Iran has refused to send a delegation for peace talks until the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.