Hormuz traffic recovery odds plummet to 24%

The likelihood of commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before the end of April has plummeted to just 24% according to prediction market Polymarket. This sharp decline follows a new wave of Iranian statements and gunboat attacks in the critical waterway, which have severely undermined confidence in a near-term resolution. The ongoing disruption continues to threaten global energy supplies and maritime security.