Markets skeptical of Hormuz reopening

Iran has announced it is once again fully closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global shipping lane. In response, traders on the prediction market Polymarket have sharply lowered their expectations for a quick resolution, with the probability of commercial traffic returning to normal soon plummeting to just 24% in the last 24 hours. This reflects growing market skepticism about an end to the ongoing crisis, which has seen repeated closures and U.S. naval blockades.